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# DISCUSSIONBOARD FORUM 2 PROJECT 4 INSTRUCTIONSWhenperformin

DISCUSSIONBOARD FORUM 2: PROJECT 4 INSTRUCTIONSWhenperforming a hypothesis test, you must make an assumption in order to performit. Assume that the hypothesis you are testing (the null hypothesis) is true.This assumption allows you to calculate the probability of the test results.You then use that probability to decide whether or not to accept the hypothesisand the claim associated with it. The more likely the results, the more readilyyou accept the hypothesis. This kind of analysis can be used to evaluate anyidea for which there are enough facts or data. For example, what about thepremise that Jesus is the Son of God? Josh McDowell takes a similar approach toanswering this question in his book, Evidence That Demands a Verdict (CampusCrusade for Christ, 1972). In his book, McDowell collects a variety ofinformation that attests to the Bible’s validity and Jesus’ claims to being theSon of God. He includes the interesting results of a large volume of research.In the section about messianic prophecy, he quotes the probabilistic analysisof Peter Stoner in Science Speaks (Moody Press, 1963). Stoner used theassumption that Jesus was just a man and not the Son of God to perform aprobability analysis and hypothesis test on some messianic prophecies. In thiscase the hypothesis was that Jesus was not the foretold Messiah or the Son ofGod. He then examined the probability of a selection of prophecies coming trueif Jesus was in fact not divine. Using a selection of 8 prophecies, Stonershowed that the probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled is 1 in 1017.Using the language of hypothesis tests, this means that you would reject thehypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah for any α > 10-17. To put itanother way, α > 0.00000000000000001. The smallest α that is normally usedfor a hypothesis test is α = 0.01. This means that you can safely reject thehypothesis that Jesus is not the Messiah or the Son of God. For more on this, Irecommend Josh McDowell’s book Evidence That Demands a Verdict. Peter Stoner’swork can be found in Science Speaks, published by Moody press. Stoner’s bookmight be difficult to find, but McDowell’s book, Evidence That Demands aVerdict is still in print. The references for the 8 Old Testament propheciesthat Peter Stoner analyzed are listed below along with the verse references fortheir fulfillment. It is likely that most students in this course believe thatJesus Christ is divine, so listing probabilities of Him doing certain things isirrelevant. However, what Stone is doing is playing the devil’s advocate. He’ssaying to the skeptical, “Okay, let’s have it your way for a second. If Jesusof Nazareth was just an ordinary man, what is the probability that he couldfulfill all the prophecies by chance?” InDiscussion Board Forum 2, post a thread that includes the following: 1. Think more about the probability of each event. For example,what is the chance that a person born in Israel would be born in or be fromBethlehem? Whatwould the probability be that a person would be crucified in Israel given thathe lived in that time period? Putnumbers on each of the eight prophecy fulfillments. Some of the probabilitieswill be subjective, but put values that you feel make sense and write a shortjustification for the value you picked. For example, if one of the propheciessaid that the Messiah would come from the house of Judah, you could say thatthe probability is 1/12, since there were 12 tribes. Do not put probabilitiesof 0 or 1. You can get closer than you might think—Google can tell you what thepopulation of Israel was in the days or Christ, for example. The importantthing is to write down your justification as to why you assigned theprobabilities you did to each prophecy. 2.Choose one of the eight prophecies in Stoner’s research. Explain how he mighthave arrived at the probability he assigned. Do you think his estimatedprobability is too high (conservative) or too low? What probability would youassign and why? By the way, here’s a reference table that shows Stoner’sprobabilities. http://www.goodnewsdispatch.org/math.html3.Given the new probabilities you associated with each prophecy, what is theprobability that all eight happened in sequence? Hint:What’s the probability that you flip a coin and it comes up tails? 50%. What ifyou flip the coin twice and it comes up tails both times? 1/2*1/2 = 25%. Whatif three times? 1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/8. What if four? Five? Now think about theprobability of just two prophecies coming to pass at the same time. What wouldthe probability be? What about three prophecies? Eight? Show your work. Don’tuse ½ in your answer! Make sure that you use the probabilities that you came upwith in question 1. 4.Reflecion Question: Do you think it is possible that someone other than Jesuscould have fulfilled the prophecies of the Bible? Why do some religious groupsclaim to believe the Bible, but reject Jesus as the Messiah?Theverse references are as follows: Dan. 9:26c Killed before the destruction ofthe temple Matthew 27:50-51 Zech. 9:9f Presented to Jerusalem riding on adonkey Matthew 21:6-9 Zech. 11:7 Ministry to ‘poor,’ the believingremnant Matthew 9:35-36 Psa. 22:16 They pierced His hands and His feet John19:34, 37; 20:27 Psa. 69:21 Given vinegar in thirst Matthew 27:34 Isa. 53:9aBuried in a rich man’s grave Matthew 27:57 Gen. 49:10 Called Shiloh or One SentJohn 17:3 Ex. 12:46 Not a bone of the Lamb to be broken John 19:31-36Submityour thread of least 100 words by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Thursday of Module/Week 7.Submit your 2 replies of at least 25 words each by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Monday ofModule/Week 7. Feel free to consult with the instructor for help with thisproject. However, each student must turn in his/her own work.

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